lundi 19 août 2013

Emergence d'n nouvel équilibre stratégique qui pourrait être favorable à Israël

L'Arabie Saoudite et les Etats du Golfe se rendraient compte qu'ils ne peuvent pas compter sur les Etats-Unis pour les protéger au cas où l'Iran parviendrait à se doter d'un arsenal nucléaire, ni sur la distante Russie, mais paradoxalement, il pourraient compter sur Israël et sur Israël seulement.

Une analyse intelligence qui nous change des platitudes journalistiques qu'on lit dans la presse.  A new balance @ Globes par Norman Bailey

Out of the murk of the Middle East since the so-called "Arab Spring", a new strategic balance may be emerging that is not unfavorable for Israel. [...] there are signs that a new strategic balance may be emerging in the region. This realignment process is made up of various elements, some of which we have emphasized in previous columns:

- Withdrawal of the US military presence in Iraq and the pending withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan.
- European neglect of the region and general withdrawal within itself to try to reverse its long-standing economic and financial decline.
- Discovery and incipient production of vast reserves of natural gas in Israeli waters.
- Gradual emergence of an autonomous, if not independent, Kurdistan, marking the formation of a new political entity in the Middle East, covering twenty to forty million people, depending on whether it is limited to Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan, or whether it will eventually cover also the Kurdish regions of Turkey and perhaps Iran.
- Increasing military, security and intelligence cooperation between Israel and the new military-controlled government in Egypt. Egyptian closure of the border with Gaza.
- Replacement of the Emir of Qatar by his son, due to Saudi pressure. The possibility of a visit by a Qatari prince to Israel to discuss economic and technological cooperation. Reports that the reopening of the Israeli trade office in Doha is imminent.
- Turkish preoccupation with domestic problems, especially growing opposition to the Erdogan government by Kemalist secularists, the Alevis, the Kurds and the Gulenists. End of Erdogan's dream of the creation of a neo- Ottoman overlordship in the region.
- Realization by Saudi Arabia and the gulf states that they cannot count on the United States to provide protective cover in case Iran succeeds in creating a nuclear arsenal, nor on a distant Russia, but paradoxically, on Israel and only on Israel.

Among other things, what this all means is that the Israeli-Palestinian talks so dear to the hearts of Obama and Kerry, are less than a sidshow. They are totally irrelevant to the important developments in the region. Put otherwise, no-one cares. It is pure political theater, and a farce at that.

Much more significant is that the emerging strategic realignment may also mean that Syria/Lebanon also become a sideshow; more political theater, except in this case a tragedy rather than a farce. Lebanon and Syria, like Iraq, will be paralyzed by the ferocious conflict between Sunni and Sh'ia.
For Israel, the situation, barring accident, unforeseen events and/or sheer political stupidity is evolving in a most favorable manner. That, coupled with the new government's willingness to take on serious domestic reforms, bodes well for the future. However, as the scorpion said to the frog which he stung as he was being carried across the Suez Canal, thereby assuring that would both die: "This is the Middle East".

Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and a researcher at the Center for National Security Studies, University of Haifa.

Aucun commentaire :