Les élites occidentales sceptiques sur le printemps arabe

Source: Jerusalem Post (Western elites skeptical Arab Spring will bring democracy). Extraits :

Opinion leaders in the US and Europe believe the mass protests of the Arab Spring are animated by a genuine desire for democracy and freedom, but they are skeptical about their prospects being achieved, according to an unusual poll that surveyed the view of leading figures in government, the media, law academia and non-government organizations.

About three quarters of the 343 opinion leaders surveyed said that anti-government protestors were motivated by “democratic aspirations” rather than “religious influence,” and shared the same democratic aspiration of other people around the world. But asked whether they regarded the revolutions risk being “captured by the familiar forces of authoritarianism,” some 56 percent said they agreed strongly or somewhat.


The poll, taken by APCO Insight and released on Tuesday, comes as the US and Europe struggle to cast a coherent policy toward the upheavals in the Middle East that have struck both allies, like former Egyptian president Husni Mubarak, and enemies like Syrian leader Bashar Assad. A key element in crafting a new policy is the level of confidence leaders have that the turmoil will lead to freer, more prosperous and more pro-Western societies. [...]

Egypt, the biggest non-oil economy of the region, is seeking aid to tide it over a period of widening budget deficits. In the longer term, it is counting on an influx of foreign investment to re-start its economy. But the survey of opinion leaders, who were from North America and Europe, found that most of the respondents expressed pessimism about the outlook for foreign investment across the Middle East.

A plurality of 47% said the “climate for direct foreign investment” in the region would be less favorable than in the past, with the negative views highest among what APCO called “elite” senior officials. The poll was taken April 28-May 13.

Slightly more than 70% of the opinion leaders polled by APCO said Arab governments would be more democratic in the wake of the revolutions, but when asked what specific achievements they foresaw coming, they were more doubtful.

While 60% saw the turmoil as acting to “accelerate economic and social development,” fewer expected women to enjoy any gains (54%), for rule of law to be more widely respected (52%) or that less violent, more tolerant societies would emerge (44%), the APCO survey found."